Illegal Immigration And Crime

I've always found it odd that there is such disparity between the conclusions from most academic studies on criminal activity by immigrants and popular perception. Most of the academic research documents that immigrants have a lower probability of incarceration than natives. This is not too surprising. One can easily imagine that the selection process for legal immigrants would filter out many would-be criminals.

But now comes Eric Rasmusen arguing that the cost of crimes committed by illegal immigrants add up to over $80 billion per year.

Crime costs America about $400 billion per year, of which about $167 billion per year is government spending–-$72 billion on police, $57 billion on imprisonment, and $38 billion on courts. My blogpost...shows that by a conservative estimate, illegal immigrants cause 21% of crime. 21% of $400 billion is $84 billion, and 21% of $167 billion is $35 billion...

This totally wipes out the gain from immigration generally estimated in the June 20, 2007 CEA report Immigration’s Economic Impact, which says immigration has a net benefit of $30 billion per year, including both legal and illegal immigrants...

I won’t go into a fullscale critique of Butcher and Piehl’s paper, Why Are Immigrants’ Incarceration Rates So Low? Evidence on Selective Immigration, Deterrence, and Deportation, which concludes that immigrants have lower crime rates than native- born Americans. Points to note, however, are:

1. They lump together legal and illegal immigrants.

2. They adjust for age and sex and education...

Let me make three points about this:

a. It wouldn't shock me if the costs of crime attributable to illegal immigration were understated in the past.

b. I am sympathetic to Rasmusen's second point regarding the Butcher-Piehl paper. I've made the same point myself in criticizing some of the studies that examine the link between immigration and welfare. It is certainly the case, for example, that there is little difference in welfare usage between immigrants and natives who have the same education and age. But that's somewhat besides the point: after all, there are disproportionately many low-educated  immigrants, and low-educated persons tend to be heavier welfare users.

(In fact, there is a general issue here regarding the use of empirical evidence for policy purposes. Economists tend to control for a lot of "extraneous" variation when we do our empirical analysis and run our regressions. But sometimes the nature of the policy debate suggests that the numbers to look at are not the ones that control for skill differences between immigrants and natives. Rather, the policy debate depends on a different question: how does a particular form of behavior differ between immigrants and natives. Period.)

c. Rasmusen's conclusion hinges on his estimate that illegals make up 21% of all inmates in jail or prison--and on an implicit assumption that the types of crimes committed by illegals are the same as those committed by other persons, so the cost attributable to illegal immigrants is proportional to their representation in the prison population. (The inmate counts come from this GAO report and could well be problematic).

I found Rasmusen's approach worth thinking about. I'd love to hear what Kristin Butcher or Anne Piehl think about this alternative approach.

Comments

[T]

On the studies that find first generation illegals commit less crime (Robert Sampson I believe), only some control for age, which I think is important (illegals could come over when older and therefore beyond the crime prone years). So I think age is legitimate, if it's found that 30 year old illegals do commit less crime than 30 year old citizens. But honestly I suspect that's not as true as those papers make out. How accurately is illegal status determined, particularly in sanctuary cities like Houston and LA (heavily immigrant populations)? How many commit serious crimes and run across the border? How good are cops at infiltrating illegal communities to find them in the first place?

Good point: "Rather, the policy debate depends on a different question: how does a particular form of behavior differ between immigrants and natives. Period.)" And it doesn't seem to me education is legitimate to control for, given that if illegal immigrants commit the same amount of crime as lower class citizens and not more, that just means a larger underclass and more crime overall.

[T]

On the studies that find first generation illegals commit less crime (Robert Sampson I believe), only some control for age, which I think is important (illegals could come over when older and therefore beyond the crime prone years). So I think age is legitimate, if it's found that 30 year old illegals do commit less crime than 30 year old citizens. But honestly I suspect that's not as true as those papers make out. How accurately is illegal status determined, particularly in sanctuary cities like Houston and LA (heavily immigrant populations)? How many commit serious crimes and run across the border? How good are cops at infiltrating illegal communities to find them in the first place?

Good point: "Rather, the policy debate depends on a different question: how does a particular form of behavior differ between immigrants and natives. Period.)" And it doesn't seem to me education is legitimate to control for, given that if illegal immigrants commit the same amount of crime as lower class citizens and not more, that just means a larger underclass and more crime overall.

[kyledeb]

The ImmigrationProf Blog recently wrote something about this and I was wondering what you thought of it.

[kyledeb]

sorry here's the address

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/immigration/2007/07/immigration-doe.html

[save_the_rustbelt]

Current illegals have received de facto amnesty for the following federal crimes:

1. use of phony or stolen SS numbers
2. use of phony or stolen ID
3. federal income tax evasion

The prosectution rates for 1 and 2 are about .0001%.

The prosecution rate for 3 is at or near 0%.

And DOJ keep statistics only by statute number, and claims to have no statistics on illegals and their crimes (or so the FOIA office claims).

Illegals are committing lots of crimes, they just are largely immune from prosecution.

[save_the_rustbelt]

Current illegals have received de facto amnesty for the following federal crimes:

1. use of phony or stolen SS numbers
2. use of phony or stolen ID
3. federal income tax evasion

The prosectution rates for 1 and 2 are about .0001%.

The prosecution rate for 3 is at or near 0%.

And DOJ keep statistics only by statute number, and claims to have no statistics on illegals and their crimes (or so the FOIA office claims).

Illegals are committing lots of crimes, they just are largely immune from prosecution.

[save_the_rustbelt]

Current illegals have received de facto amnesty for the following federal crimes:

1. use of phony or stolen SS numbers
2. use of phony or stolen ID
3. federal income tax evasion

The prosectution rates for 1 and 2 are about .0001%.

The prosecution rate for 3 is at or near 0%.

And DOJ keep statistics only by statute number, and claims to have no statistics on illegals and their crimes (or so the FOIA office claims).

Illegals are committing lots of crimes, they just are largely immune from prosecution.

[save_the_rustbelt]

sorry, computer went nuts

[save_the_rustbelt]

sorry, computer went nuts

[D Flinchum]

"I've made the same point myself in criticizing some of the studies that examine the link between immigration and welfare. It is certainly the case, for example, that there is little difference in welfare usage between immigrants and natives who have the same education and age."

One element that I suspect gets missed on this is that while illegal immigrants are prevented from receiving many types of "welfare", their US born children are eligible and if they receive such benefits, they are counted as citizens receiving benefits although they clearly would not be citizens unless their mother (at least) had entered the US illegally. I've often wondered how that affected citizens vs immigrant welfare usage stats.

[Dave]

Am I the only one who understands the difference between "criminal alien" and "illegal alien"?

[Bren4824]

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[Debbie]

It is impossible to get the facts straight when so many cities and even our government will not identify who is here illegally. With that in mind, the real numbers for crimes committed by illegals must be huge! Only until recently have we even seen in the headline news any mention that a criminal is "thought" to be in the country illegally. For years the liberal media refused to mention the immigration status of the person who committed the crime. Even now, Senator Reid refers to illegal aliens as "undocumented Americans!" We've had more than 20 years of denial. The moment an illegal alien steps foot on American soil he or she is costing American taxpayers! Especially if they are caught or injured! Time for a wall with armed guards ready to shoot! It would be much cheaper than anything we have now.

[Bobby]

Debbie you are so awfully correct. The moment an illegal steps foot on American soil, they cost us. Americans are being so duped by their politicians. Hillary goes around campaigning with Bill, both with smilign faces. All the while, in too many cases, Americans cannot get jobs in the Southwest states because they do not speak Spanish. When they do get jobs, their taxes are entirely to high to service the tab on all of the illegal aliens needs, transportation, schooling, medical, social services, free food as school,etc etc. While all of this is going on a vast underground economy exists where probably billions of dollars of taxes are not paid and illegals and corrupt employers pocket the difference. When they don't have a job or don't want one, they steal. Yes, they steal. I know this hurts progressive/liberals ears, but it hurts the victims of the thefts more. Conclusion:Every reputable pyschologist will tell you that the key to solving a problem is awareness. How many Americans are "aware" of the grand ride their being taken for?

[Cristina]

The crime statistics in the above article imply that every time a crime is commited, it is recorded. But, living in Los Angeles, I can tell you that a lot of crime is going on and the criminals are not being caught. Why? Because it may be a politically unpopular issue, (large scale welfare fraud by elderly immigrants for example), or the police are just overwhelmed and can't keep up with it all, there is little or no protection for witnesses so sometimes we don't report what we are aware of, or police may fail to act because of a language barrier - there are just too many languages here. An interepreter may be from the same closed immigrant community as the violent perpetrator. Car theft is rampant here, and offers a good supply of free parts for those who know how to work on their own car. This is a large scale problem but does not get that much attention from law enforcement. (I called one time to report a car as it was being stripped, but the officer who answered wasn't too interested). My own car was stolen then found. The detective assigned to the case never returned my many phone calls. You can sometimes see cars being stripped in broad daylight.
I discussed the possible murder and dissapearance of a young man with a police officer who explained "If he was here illegally, no one will ever know what happened to him."

[Cristina]

To Flinchman: A citizen friend (single mom) who chose to work rather than collect welfare explained to me that a child of illegal immigrant parents can recieve more welfare than a child of citizen parents because the illegal parents "cannot work." The illegal alien father (worked in restaurants) of one of the children did not want to pay child support because he was already supporting a family in Mexico, but since he was using the S.S. card of someone else, he did not want to give it up and was forced to pay.
In Los Angeles I often see apparently illegal alien women with 3 stairstep children. I am told that 3 is the welfare cap, although I have heard that 3 can also be assigned to a man, so that makes at least 6 ok for welfare. Another friend was having his taxes done. Ahead of him was an African immigrant, claiming dependants in Africa. The tax preparer said he could not do that, only if they lived in Mexico. Behind in line was a full hispanic family - Mom, Dad, kids. Mom was claiming single. I was once typing up paperwork for a mature, conservative Mexican woman. I asked her "married, single...?" She replied "married," then said "change that to "single" for my benefits.

[Bobby]

Thank you Cristina. We who live in California are aware of the massive defrauding of the taxpayers of the state and the nation by illegal immigrants. Now, try telling this to liberal/democrats and dumbhead progressives. All they do is give you a blank stare. It is obvious,that they, like the amnesty Senators, want to bring middle class Americans and this nation of ours to ruin.

[Cristina]

Bobby,
I don't think it is just a problem of legal/illegal immigrants directly trying to get our money through welfare. Many are not that calculating. In fact, it is just about handed to them. They are made to feel entitled. They are encouraged with advertising and word of mouth. The agencies do little checking for fraud. The immigrant is not putting a gun to anyone's head. The immigrant is most visible, whether the sophisticated, educated Russian or Armenian with food stamps, first class benefits and flaunting an expensive car, or the illiterate indigenous Indian peasant with many children and coach class benefits. Less visible are the well paid administrators, medical clinics, churches and other businesses, including employers who enjoy the cheap subsidized wages, all involved. While I was working at a hospital a fax came in ..."Take your congressman to dinner..." I believe the benefits tend to cut off when the child turns 18. By then the parents are 40ish, no longer so desirable in the labor market. Is this a conscious plan? Some do well - dad works and mom declares herself single while the family enjoys the benefits of the welfare system, such as lots of food stamps. What will happen to the aging illegal immigrant workers when the benefits end? Looks like older, experienced better paid American workers are being replaced by younger cheaper "bilingual" workers connected to the welfare system. Which of course means hispanic unwed mothers - oops! - single mothers.

[Bobby]

Cristina,I totally agree with you and know this is going on. In fact, if the reason was that I limited by post to illegal aliens own actions etc., I only did so because as you say, there is so much corruption by so many people involved in the system that a complete statement on the problem would extend to maybe ten thousand words. As just one example, public school educators and teachers love illegal immigration because more warm bodies means job securtiy and high pay down the road. Here is my conclusion: Americans are going to have to decide, soon, by either mass protest, or accepting silence which way they want their nation to go. If it is to become Latin, then we need many more Mexican embassies, don't we?

[Cristina]

Bobby,
I think a certain amount of people are being cut out of jobs now because they are not Spanish speaking. ("bilingual" seems to mean Spanish/English). However, liberal black and white Americans do not protest much about this. They mostly focus on about superficial differences such as skin color, I guess, not language and culture. It would be nice if the newspapers would do an extensive investigative article about all the many welfare programs, their size and cost. I wonder what it would take to bring this to public attention? Too bad Michael Moore is so far to the left! Just to nit pick - according to some Latin means Greek, Italian, etc. Hispanic means of Spanish origin. (By this definition eliminating Spanish speaking blacks from Panama and dialect speaking indigenous Indians from Mexico, for example?)However, for political convenience these terms are used loosely. Sailer (?) at Vdare.com has written some about this. Cramming people into tidy racial categories is not so easy - A Mexican immigrant may be white in that country, but hispanic/brown here. African immigrants may be categorized as American blacks, for example, depending on the form you are filling out. Mexico is full of skin color/class/race divisions, and they do not teach tolerance as is done here.

[Bobby]

You cannot teach tolerance. When I was a teenager and got into fights, as almost all teenagers do, I could never just start beating on someone. I was a little bigger for my age than some guys and I always worried that I might hurt someone. No one taught me this behavior. Occasionally, I would really let go and I once split a kids lip open, then I felt sorry for him. Again, no one taught me this. Thousands of other kids would have beaten their opponent further.

I bring this up because many, many, Americans I have met, I know for a fact are gentle, kind, and nice people. The elitest politicians of this nation know this and take advantage of it mercilessly. The last attempt at Amnesty for millions of people who broke the law coming here and further break it by operating with methods like, identity theft, fraudulent documents, tax evasion, and every other illegal method to gain their ends, proved how little politicians respect Americans, like the kind I mentioned above. They were quite willing to allow massive wage depression and essentially an end to the middleclass and American language,culture, customes and laws, as we have always known them. The Pied Pipers of illegal immigration are mainly the Democrats led by, Ted Kennedy, President Bush(yeah, he's a democrat)Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid.

Yes, Michael Moore has many valid points about this nation, but when it comes to illegal immigration, he like all other "progressives" are no help to American citizens. To them, the needs of anyone who has arrived here yesterday, is of more import than long time,hardworking, middleclass, taxpaying American citizens. No they are basically a hinderence to Americans, rather than a help. It is not tolerance that will save us. Not the liberal/progressive type of tolerance in any case, where the outdated idea of the early seventies is that there is somehow some honor in tolerating the intolerable. It somehow makes you a better person. It does not. It makes you resentfull. What will save us in the United States is a complete and honest change of spirit, where the laws mean something and are not played with by the leftist and the conservate elites for their own benefit. The tolerance stuff will work itself out. That is true freedom, to not be forced into a leftist framework, where despite the circumstances the "program" must be followed, even as to what we may think.

[Ames Tiedeman]

I have enormous concerns about illegal immigration. I see it as one of the great causes of my generation. It is right up there with terrorism. If we fail to act. If we fail to prevent the Third World from flooding into our grat land we will be culturally destroyed. The United States of America became the great nation that it is because it was founded by WESTERN MAN. Each time we allow someone to come to our shores who is not WESTERN, we shake the very foundation that is who we are. Islam does not have the capacity to write an American Constitution, yet some think a Muslim can come to America and our nation will be no different. It will be different. With each non western body on our land it becomes more and more different. If we do not act to stem this illegal immigration from every corner of the globe, we will perish. Our culture will be destroyed if we allow this nation to grow by another 100 million non western people over the next 50 years.