Back In Business

We began our vacation in Yellowstone and ended it at one of the megaresorts in Las Vegas. A nice time was had by all in this activity-filled vacation that included whitewater rafting, horseback riding, camping, hiking, and going to see some of the Las Vegas spectacular shows.

Along the way, a couple of immigration-related observations kept cropping up.

The first were the unmistakable signs of a very tight labor market. The McDonald's at West Yellowstone, MT, for example, had a sign on its door announcing that they were hiring at $9 an hour. A recent news story on a labor shortage in Western states makes a similar point:

Record low unemployment across parts of the West has created tough working conditions for business owners, who in places are being forced to boost wages or be creative to fill their jobs.

John Francis, who owns the McDonald's in Sidney, Mont., said he tried advertising in the local newspaper and even offered up to $10 an hour to compete with higher-paying oil field jobs. Yet the only calls were from other business owners upset they would have to raise wages, too. Of course, Francis' current employees also wanted a pay hike.

"I don't know what the answer is," Francis said. "There's just nobody around that wants to work."

The second was the relative absence of persons who could be easily classified as immigrants of Latin American origin in many of the places where one would have expected to find them. The staff at the West Yellowstone McDonald's was obviously not of Latin American origin and neither was the cleaning staff at the Mandalay Bay, the Las Vegas hotel where we stayed. That hotel instead seemed to be using a very large number of Albanian (!) immigrants.

I don't think that I would have ordinarily made a link between the two points I made above. But the recent efforts at stronger enforcement of our immigration laws at both the federal and local levels suggest there may be a link. Here's some evidence as reported by a Tulsa television station (via Polipundit):

The state of Oklahoma recently approved a new law that requires deportation for illegal aliens who are arrested, and limits benefits and jobs to those individuals. The report said in East Tulsa, where a community of Hispanics has grown over recent years, there’s been a sudden drop in population.

Business owner Simon Navarro has been in business there 11 years, and said the tough law has chased away 30 percent of the state’s Hispanic population.

“Two months ago I heard 25,000 Hispanics have left Oklahoma,” he told the station. “They are leaving. A lot have already left.

“People are leaving,” he said. “They’re scared of the sheriff.”

And then there's this: Mickey Kaus notes that at a town meeting following the demise of his comprehensive immigration reform plan, President Bush put on his forecasting hat and said:

I can make you a prediction, though, that pretty shortly people are going to be knocking on people's doors saying "Man we're running out of workers"...

Which brings me to theorizing about the motive behind the widely publicized current efforts to enforce federal immigration laws after a years-long hiatus. Why exactly has President Bush decided to become tough on illegal immigrants? I can think of 3 possible reasons:

1. He has finally seen the light. He realized that his previous hands-off policy only worsened the problem and he wants to clean up some of the mess before he leaves office.

2. He is expecting that people who are running out of workers will be knocking on the doors of Congressmen and Senators--who will then be prodded into action and approve the amnesty and guest worker programs that Bush has so much wanted for so many years.

3. He knows something about a link between the porous Mexican border and national security that he is not telling us about, and he wants to make sure his legacy is not irreparably soiled by a future terrorist attack that can be directly traced to his ignoring the border problem for so long.

I have many doubts about Bush's sincerity in this particular issue--so that I don't think motive #1 is what underlies the recent surge in enforcement. So it must be motives #2 or #3.

And, finally, an aside I can't resist:

I presume that it is the higher wages resulting from stronger immigration enforcement that leads Bush to predict that employers will soon be knocking on doors because they are running out of cheap workers.

Has Bush even read his own Council of Economic Advisers report on immigration's economic impact? At the peak of the emotional debate over the "comprehensive reform" legislation, the CEA issued a report that deliberately emphasized claims that higher levels of immigration raise the wage of native workers.

Is President Bush disavowing the CEA's blind acceptance of such findings? After all, if more immigration raises wages, wouldn't fewer immigrants lower wages? Would employers really mind that outcome so much? Can't these people get their story straight?

Comments

[Dee]

So you are ok with Albanian immigrants and don´t question their legal or illegal status, how interesting.

As blackcommentator.com reports, "The problem for much of the USA with immigration is not so much immigration, but that there is so much immigration from South of the border, and specifically from Brown countries. This immigration upsets the racial balance—that is, the domination of a ‘white bloc’—that the ruling elites have attempted to hold in place since the founding of the USA (when it was declared that whites could become citizens, whoever the whites happened to be)."

Your posts reveal your true issues, Mr. Borjas.

http://immigrationmexicanamerican.blogspot.com/

[gborjas]

Dee,

You misread me. I made the point about Albanian immigrants without any type of editorial comment. I said nothing whatsoever about whether it's ok or not ok. The (!) mark was meant to indicate my surprise at finding that type of hiring in Las Vegas.

[jimbino]

So could you please comment on my assertion that Forests are bereft of Black, Hispanic and Amerindian faces, at least among the visitors?

[gborjas]

Jimbino,

We were pretty isolated during our days in Yellowstone, so any generalizations from my experience this time around would be meaningless. If anything, the one group I saw greatly over-represented were German tourists. I suspect that the Park Service would keep some types of statistics on the makeup of the visiting population. It'd be interesting to see some of those numbers.

[Dee]

Ok George, Let me ask you this then. If the workers were Hispanics, would you have said more than a "!" ?

Just curious.

[Dee]

PS George. As a fellow Hispanic, I am still proud of you for all of your success!

My Dad would have been proud of you too!

Here are a couple of blogs I wrote about my Dad:
http://immigrationmexicanamerican.blogspot.com/2007/07/my-dad-was-my-hero.html

http://immigrationmexicanamerican.blogspot.com/2007/08/why-we-are-in-this-immigration-mess.html

[jimbino]

Yes, I believe the NPS and the Forest Service have stats on the racial makeup of visitors. But they are so embarrassing that they will be hard to find, I'm sure.

As a libertarian and Hispanic myself, I agree with folks like Friedman and Epstein that the national parks and forests should be privatized and the gain used for something, like reducing the national debt, that might actually hold some promise of helping our minorities who are helping to foot the bill for unique resorts they will never visit.

Disney World serves more worldwide minorities than our White Country-Club National Parks and Forests will ever serve!

[Richard A.]

And this is what Edward P. Lazear wrote on Nov. 10, 2004 before he became Chairman of the CEA.

The Plight of Immigrants from Mexico
http://tinyurl.com/yqvy9z

What happens to economists when they go to Washington?

[Anon]

I think the concessions at Yellowstone are less than indicative of the free market. They are totally dependant on the continued goodwill of the Federal Government, and also have no competition and no need to charge a reasonable price for anything (try getting lunch at Old Faithful). I suspect they can get as many visas as they want. I've gone to Yellowstone every year for about 25 years now and in that time the employees have gone from perky Scandanavians and lots of Irish to sullen Eastern Europeans and Russians. There never have been a lot of Hispanics.

[CTL]

Jimbino, would you be against me (a white person) opting out of that portion of my taxes which goes towards the welfare system? See table 1, http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/indicators06/ch1.htm Me and my race/ethnicity ain't gettin our money's worth! Howabout we make welfare a pay-to-play game too?

[Greg B.]

Jimbino,

NPS and USFS stats are not hard to find. The NPS social science program publishes technical reports regarding visitor demographics on its Web site.

A recent survey found that:

Thirty-two percent of respondents reported visiting a National Park System unit within the previous two years. Thirty-six percent of white non-Hispanics, 33 percent of American Indians, 29 percent of Asians, and 27 percent of Hispanic Americans reported visiting an NPS unit within the previous two years. The visitation rate for African Americans was 13 percent. •

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they were either very likely or somewhat likely to visit a National Park System unit within the next 12 months. There were no significant differences in responses to this question by race and ethnicity. However, this projection of future behavior should be considered against the pattern of past behavior showing lower visitation rates by African Americans.

When provided with a list of barriers to visitation, a majority of all respondents believed that overall costs (hotel, food, and other items), lack of information about what to do inside parks, and the travel distance to a unit were important barriers. However, Hispanic Americans and African Americans were more likely to list these as barriers than whites. •

Almost one-half of both white non-Hispanic respondents and Hispanic Americans felt that crowded parks were a deterrent to visitation. •

Hispanic Americans expressed significantly greater concern about reservations having to be made too far in advance, and they were more than twice as likely as whites and African Americans to be concerned about safety in National Park System units. •

African Americans were more than three times as likely as whites to believe that park employees gave poor service to visitors, and that parks were uncomfortable places to be for people similar to themselves.

[kyledeb]

It is definitely #2. Bush is doing this in hopes that businesses will start knocking on the doors of congressman and senators

[Evinx]

I too think it is #2 - the CEA report discusses immigration and does not isolate out illegal immigrants. The nature of the work done by illegals (and their impact on our economy) is likely quite different than that of legal immigrants. For example, 40% of PhD are immigrants -- does anyone really think many of them are illegals?

[tommy]

"Has Bush even read his own Council of Economic Advisers report on immigration's economic impact? At the peak of the emotional debate over the "comprehensive reform" legislation, the CEA issued a report that deliberately emphasized claims that higher levels of immigration raise the wage of native workers.

Is President Bush disavowing the CEA's blind acceptance of such findings? After all, if more immigration raises wages, wouldn't fewer immigrants lower wages? Would employers really mind that outcome so much? Can't these people get their story straight?"

Great point and welcome back.

[jimbino]

CTL, you won't find much support from me for our Welfare System. But surely it is more honorable to steal from the rich and middle class to feed the very poor than to steal from the very poor to maintain exclusive White Country Clubs like Yellowstone.

And nothing in Greg B's post speaks directly to the dearth of black and brown faces at our expensive western parks and forests. The stats he quotes read like a total smoke screen to cover NPS embarrassment.

[Greg B.]

Jimbino,

There are substantial barriers to park visitation, and learning how to expand visitation opportunities is a key concern of the NPS Social Science Program. However,if one third of Native Americans (nearly the same percentage as non-Hispanic whites) and more than one quarter of Hispanics report that they regulary recreate in parks such as Yellowstone, how exclusive is the club? You really should read the reports that are available to anyone with access to an Internet connection. The NPS and various contracted researchers even provide contact information for people who want to learn more.

[Banjo]

Dee would like to see as many Mexicans cross the border as the land can accommodate. That would be somewhere in the order of another 50 million or so. The Mexican authorities would like nothing better. It takes off any pressure to reform the systemic corruption that keeps the country a place where nobody with any brains wants to live.

[Jim Miller]

George - FWIW, examples of foreign workers at two more national parks here: http://www.seanet.com/~jimxc/Politics/August2007_4.html#jrm5346

I have visited Rainier, which is just two hours away, nearly every year for the last ten years, and don't recall seeing foreign workers there before this year.

[Gary]

I think the professor is right about Bush's motives. It's certainly not #1, is probably motivated primarily by #2, and there could be an element of #3.

Anyway, Bush's comment about "people knocking on doors" and "man, we're running out of workers" betrays an ignorance of economics that explains why he was a failure as a private businessman. If certain jobs still go begging even when there's a huge mismatch between the wage offered and what the job is really worth, then as a business owner you look for ways to automate/mechanize the job, or you figure out if the job is even necessary to begin with.

It seems to me that a somewhat tight labor market is necessary for technological innovation to flourish. If cheap labor was the answer to everything, we'd still be digging the Panama canal, since everyone knows that an army of ditch diggers with shovels is way more cost effective than mechanized earth moving equipment.

[John]

Given jimbino's blatent anti-white racism, I have to wonder why he expects whites to like Hispanics.

[John]

"I can make you a prediction, though, that pretty shortly people are going to be knocking on people's doors saying "Man we're running out of workers"... "

What the heck does it even mean to "run out of workers" in a free market economy? It makes as much sense as saying we will run out of copper or oil. The whole point of our system is that it is efficient at managing shortage. If everything existed in limitless abundence we could just as easily have a communist system.

We cannot "run out" of workers. The market will reassign workers towards the places where it needs them the most.

Of course that means some businesses will have to close, and many modern businessmen think that government exists to keep them in business.

[Big Bill]

Dee is proud of you "as a fellow Hispanic". Pity she seeks to divide and not unite. Let me say that I am proud of you "as a fellow American".

Regarding the oil field boom, I must admit I am puzzled. One thing that inevitably happens whenever there is a local boom is that wages go through the roof for workers AND prices also rise.

Whether you consider the Yukon in 1898, San Francisco in 1849, or Montana in 2007, the result is the same: you pay tons of money for your workers, but you also make tons of money as a service provider. What Mr. Francis needs to do is double the cost of burgers and double the wages he offers. He will get rich, just not obscenely so.

As an aside to Miz Dee, and a defense of you, Mr. Borjas, speaking for many of us anti's, it really isn't a racial matter where Mexico is concerned, it is cultural.

We anti's are just as firmly against any invasion of our country by the rich white Hispanic exploiters that own Mexico as we are all the ignorant brown Hispanic peasants that the rich white Mexicans are seeking to dump on our towns and cities. Point 'em both out and we'll send 'em both home. We don't want any traditional Hispanic exploitation (brown OR white) in our land, thank you very much.

[Big Bill]

Dee is proud of you "as a fellow Hispanic". Pity she seeks to divide and not unite. Let me say that I am proud of you "as a fellow American".

Regarding the oil field boom, I must admit I am puzzled. One thing that inevitably happens whenever there is a local boom is that wages go through the roof for workers AND prices also rise.

Whether you consider the Yukon in 1898, San Francisco in 1849, or Montana in 2007, the result is the same: you pay tons of money for your workers, but you also make tons of money as a service provider. What Mr. Francis needs to do is double the cost of burgers and double the wages he offers. He will get rich, just not obscenely so.

As an aside to Miz Dee, and a defense of you, Mr. Borjas, speaking for many of us anti's, it really isn't a racial matter where Mexico is concerned, it is cultural.

We anti's are just as firmly against any invasion of our country by the rich white Hispanic exploiters that own Mexico as we are all the ignorant brown Hispanic peasants that the rich white Mexicans are seeking to dump on our towns and cities. Point 'em both out and we'll send 'em both home. We don't want any traditional Hispanic exploitation (brown OR white) in our land, thank you very much.

[David Fleck]

On our extensive tour* of western National Parks in 2006, my non-rigorous, non-quantitative impression was that most of the park concessionaire workers were college-age kids from the U.S. and various parts of Europe that got hired on for the summer.

As far as the visitors went, the ethnic mixture varied a lot depending on the park. The Utah parks had lots of French and Spanish tourists, Sequoia had lots of Chinese or Taiwanese, Yosemite had everybody. Yellowstone and Grand Teton had relatively fewer non-English speaking visitors, mostly Germans. Badlands hardly had any visitors at all.

Blacks and U.S. hispanics did seem underrepresented, especially outside California.

*http://www.aracnet.com/~dcf/pr/archives/cat_big_rocks_big_trees_modaves_2006_tour.html

[Dee]

Big Bill, You would have to read my Dad´s advice in order to understand what I am talking about.

It is a pity you immediately spout anger before first seeking to understand.