I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say that most off-the-shelf economic models of migration would have trouble predicting something like this.
Over the past three weeks, 45 families and 31 individuals--approximately 200 people--entered Canada at the Detroit River crossings and applied in Windsor for shelter and social assistance after filing refugee claims with the Canada Border Services Agency. Municipal agencies dealing with the sudden influx of mainly Mexican refugee applicants are renting out hotel rooms and bracing for predicted thousands more to come. With the bulk of the latest arrivals being long-time Mexican illegals dislodged from their homes and workplaces in southwestern Florida...
One would typically think that imposing costs on migration to a particular location would encourage the migrants to return home or to go to a place that offered somewhat similar opportunities to the ones that motivated the original choice of location. But some of the Mexican illegal immigrants displaced from Florida (presumably because of increased enforcement by the Department of Homeland Security) are not choosing to go back to Mexico or move to Georgia or Alabama instead. No, they are setting their sights on Canada instead.
But, as they say, there's more to the story. There's a simple reason for this northward migration flow--somebody is profiting from it:
They ask, 'Is Canada an option?' and I say, 'Yes, it is an option,'" Jacques Sinjuste of the Jerusalem Haitian Community Center said in a phone interview Wednesday. For a US$300 "donation" (most of those interviewed in Windsor claim they paid US$400), JHCC staff download forms off the Internet, help applicants fill them out and give directions on how to get to the Canadian border.
Needless to say, Canadian officials are not impressed by the claims for refugee status. So a good question arises: Mexico, Florida, Canada,.....?

What a bonehead I was! I'm an American who had a job in Belgium some years ago (where I very much enjoyed living) but was forced to leave after 5 years because of a Belgian tax law that made it impossible for my American employer to keep me there. I simply should have overstayed my work visa and then fled to the Netherlands or Scandinavia (where they have even better social safety nets) and applied for refugee status. But, silly me, I obeyed the law, stupidly decided not to overstay my visa and came back home.
Posted by: corvid | September 21, 2007 at 09:40 AM
I'm not an economist, but I read your blog every day. I live in an area that is a mecca for illegal immigration in central Florida and feel that I know them pretty well; I have religious ties to the community. I've always wondered why they had "not" gone to Canada.
The welfare benefits are extremely important to them, I guess more than most people realize, and wouldn't they be even better in a more Leftist country like Canada?
Remember the Somali community who took up in Maine? Their scouts were on the hunt for a location that provided the best welfare benefits plus low crime. If I remember correctly, they didn't talk much about job opportunities.
Posted by: Emily | September 21, 2007 at 10:49 AM
I'm not an economist, but I read your blog every day. I live in an area that is a mecca for illegal immigration in central Florida and feel that I know them pretty well; I have religious ties to the community. I've always wondered why they had "not" gone to Canada.
The welfare benefits are extremely important to them, I guess more than most people realize, and wouldn't they be even better in a more Leftist country like Canada?
Remember the Somali community who took up in Maine? Their scouts were on the hunt for a location that provided the best welfare benefits plus low crime. If I remember correctly, they didn't talk much about job opportunities.
Posted by: Emily | September 21, 2007 at 10:49 AM
I really thing the larger issue of illegal immigration has to be dealt with on a North American level not just a USA level. I read an interesting article on www.jobandvisa.com . It refered to all the illegal workers in the USA now crossing into Canada.
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