Forecasting Economics Nobels

Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin, and Roger Myerson won this year's Nobel Prize in Economics. And it is a well-deserved prize too.

I don't have much to add, except to note that NONE of these 3 economists appeared in the list of "favorites" in the Intrade marketplace (see the screen shot below of the list of potential winners that were in the trading). Next time you hear a complaint about the failure of economists to forecast major economic shifts, just remember this: we even have trouble forecasting who amongst us is being seriously considered for a Nobel.

Comments

[John Williams]

Maybe Economists don't gamble on the Intrade website.

[neil wilson]

I have always found InTrade to be a good predictor. Obviously, it ain't perfect. After all, I am the only one who is never wrong.

But don't you think InTrade does a pretty good job on things like presidential elections and such?

[DRDR]

Well, the thing is, in the Presidential election, the field is clear. Not so here. Borjas' criticism doesn't really work here, because the InTrade contenders weren't selected in market fashion -- I don't know who picked them, but it was probably done by a central planner who picked them based on the Thomson citation predictions over the years. My guess it the pool that Mankiw mentioned on his blog fared better in guessing the winners.

And seriously, don't look at the citation measures next time you project winners. Just look through first-year grad and undergrad textbooks and see whose seminal work hasn't been honored yet.