A New Trend In Illegal Immigration

There's been a debate in labor economics about whether native workers respond to the negative wage impact of immigration by moving to areas that have fewer immigrants. Now we have another question to argue over: Do illegal immigrants move to states that are more willing to ignore their presence?

Illegal immigrants are flowing into Texas across its long borders. But they aren't just swimming across the Rio Grande from Mexico or making dangerous treks through the rugged desert.

Instead, a new rush of illegal immigrants are driving down Interstate 35 from Oklahoma or heading east to Texas from Arizona to flee tough new anti-illegal immigrant laws in those and other states.

The growing exodus is the result of dozens of new state and local laws aimed at curbing illegal immigration. The two toughest measures are in Oklahoma and Arizona.

The Oklahoma statute, which took effect in November, makes it a crime to transport, harbor or hire illegal immigrants. Effective Jan. 1, the Arizona law suspends the business license of employers who knowingly hire undocumented workers. On a second offense, the license is revoked.

''It's a wave that's happening across the United States," said Nelson Reyes, executive director of the Central American Resource Center in Houston, which has helped immigrants who recently relocated in Houston from Virginia and South Carolina. ''There is a migration, within the United States, to the states and cities more receptive to the reality of the undocumented immigrant."

A word of advice if you are a student looking for a research topic: Look no further; there's a great paper waiting to be written about this.

Comments

[MDT]

Dr Borjas

With all due respect, why is this a research topic?

Would it not be expected that people who have the choice will always move to where the pickings are easier and they will not be punished for their illegal actions? That is simply natural law.

Perhaps the research would be to study the long term impact on the quality of life, crime, environment, over-population, etc between the strict states and the sanctuary states - but that will not be apparent for years.

[T]

Seems like a good research topic to me. Difficult, but important. It would be important to study what the magnitude of the effect is (how much outmigration is there), how much the strict areas benefitted, etc. Some of those benefits would be pretty immediate (fewer kids in school, lower welfare payments). The comparison study between strict/sanctuary is what would take longer, in part because the illegals will be dispersed across many states and it will be hard to determine where they're going while the strict counties/states are a discrete set. "This county enacted this ordinance and enforced it. Within 5 months school population declined by X% and X% of those who left had a Spanish surname [obviously an imperfect measure but some proxy would have to be developed]. Welfare payments declined by X%." Harder to do with states. Even if most illegals in OK who left moved to TX and not other states (if that could even be known) they would a)probably disperse and not all settle in one city like Houston or Dallas and b)TX is a big state with a large population. 1,000 illegal aliens moving into one county of 100,000 is more noticeable than 1,000 into 20 million.

People think/thought welfare recipients would migrate to states with more liberal payments, but apparently that isn't as much the case as people thought. Sometimes good to study the obvious...

[T]

I meant "harder to do with destination states" (where the illegal aliens end up).

[steve]

To me, the more interesting question for academic study is, why the states that receive so many of the illegals are so receptive to them?

I mean, Texas is schools and hospitals are flooded. Citizens are getting terrible care.

yet Texas has not enacted any laws similar to the ones in Arizona.

The real mystery is, what are people in Texas thinking

Can someone study that

[T]

I know in Texas Hispanics are more assimilated than in CA. This isn't just perception, studies have shown this (I don't have time to find them). Perhaps Texans think the illegal Hispanics will turn out like the American Hispanics.

Maybe Oklahoma never had that history of citizen Hispanics and so they just see the illegal ones clogging their hospitals, schools, neighborhoods, getting drunk, being loud, etc. Same with the VA counties that have enacted ordinances.

[Newbie]

I believe that Hispanics are also the majority in Texas. The Hispanic citizens there are illegal alien sympathizers. Go figure!

[T]

They're not the majority. It was only a couple of years ago whites became a minority, and blacks I believe make up something like 12% of the population (I know it's about equivalent to the U.S. black population, which is 12%). There are a fair number of Asians too. I would guess Hispanics are a third and this is anecdotal I know but I've met plenty of Hispanic citizens who aren't for the illegals.

Some areas in TX are doing something (Farmers Branch comes to mind).

[Dee]

I agree Dr. B. This would be a great paper. I recommend some of the following be included in this paper.

1. Topic: State to State Migration after Restrictionist Immigration laws passed and enforced (e.g. HB 1804 in Oklahoma, eff date Nov. 2007)
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:YwU9693E-vkJ:webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/2007-08bills/HB/HB1804_ENR.RTF+hb+1804&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us

2. Legal Status: Of those migrating, how many legal citizens, illegal immigrants.
3. Ethnicity: Of those migrating, what % by ethnicity
4. Receiving State: e.g. From Oklahoma to % to Texas, % other states
5. Impact to Economy, by state (sending and receiving): rate of state tax revenue (increase, decrease), Employment rates (increase, decrease), rate of Business Bankruptcy (increase, decrease), rate of employee wages (increase, decrease)
6. Crime Rates: by state (increase vs decrease, by ethnicity)
7. Case Studies: personal interviews with both legal citizens that migrated and illegal immigrants who migrated. Ask why they left. Include questions on Racial Profiling (experienced or perceived).

I live in the DFW area (Dallas, Fort Worth). I see construction everywhere. Businesses are thriving. Driving from my suburb to the shopping mall, about 5 miles from me, I am seeing two new strip malls and some gas stations and restaurants busy, under construction. Many of the side roads are undergoing upgrades. As I drive by, I see all of the workers. The vast majority, I would say 95%, are Hispanic. I saw a few African Americans, but the rest were all Hispanic. All the workers were working very hard, no breaks for them. Digging, lifting, running machinery, as if under some intense timelines.

My guess is, most workers are citizens. I think many people leave OK or AZ because they do not like the racial profiling and they just want to go somewhere and work and live with their family in peace.

I know if I lived in the same town as AZ´s racial profiler Sheriff Arpaio, I would have already packed my bags and I am a citizen grandmother who has worked over 30 years and never been in trouble a day in my life.

When I read about other states, like Oklahoma or Arizona talking about the loss of business, tax revenue and a call by leaders to rescind the restrictionist laws:
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20080202_1_A1_hItsj23352
Then I check out what is happening in my hometown, I see the difference.

[Dee]

T, Per the census, Texas is a majority minority state (majority is NOT non-hispanic whites) as is New Mexico, California and Hawaii, as well as Wash DC, Guam and PR.

It is important to note Persons of HISPANIC ORIGIN (ethnicity) accounted for 35.31 percent of the population in Texas and may be of ANY race. As of the 2005 US Census estimates, the racial distribution in Texas are as follows: 84.14% White; 12.09% African American or African; 3.62% Asian; 0.17% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander; and 1.1% American Indian or Alaskan Native.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority-minority_state

[el_longhorn]

Hispanics in Texas are more assimilated? By what measure? Latinos in Texas are more likely to speak Spanish than Latinos in California, and the CW in the community is that Mexican Americans in Texas are more traditional and closer to their roots.

Also, the number of immigrants that are supposedly fleeing OK and AZ would be so small compared to Texas' population as to be practically immeasurable from a macro perspective, IMO.

[Newbie]

So why are there mostly Hispanics doing those construction jobs? Don't try to tell me that Non Hispanics are too lazy to do them because it isn't true.

So Texas is 84% White? Where is the Hispanic catagory? Lumping Hispanic Whites in with Anglo Whites is misleading. They aren't the same in racial our cultural composition.

[T]

Dee, where did I say non-Hispanic whites were the majority in Texas? I said the precise opposite. Hispanics aren't the majority either, as was my point. Please read my post.

el_longhorn, from all I've read Hispanics in Texas are more assimilated than in CA. They're more likely to consider themselves *white* (more as an identification with the mainstream culture instead of race), more patriotic, etc. If you've read differently fine.

As for your second paragraph I pretty much said the same thing...

[jonathan]

The fine folks who move from mexico to Texas (both legally and illegally) are in some ways more assimilated - people that move from mexico to texas are much much more likely to join the us military or border patrol than people that move from mexico to california.

Another thing is that Texas never had a hospital system or a school system as good as california's so texans may not feel they are losing so much when their schools and hospitals go to heck

probably the political balance has shifted so much that california and texas will both always be sanctuary states - the state governments will always welcome an unlimited number of undocumented folks to come in

perhaps the us will bifurcate with california and texas having massive immigration of fine folks from south of the border and massive out migration of anglos - end result is california and texas essentially merging in to mexico with the rest of the usa going in another direction

[Newbie]

Not on your life is California and Texas going to become part of Mexico! Only in your reconquista dreams, buddy. Fine folks from south of the border? They aren't all fine folks. Many are felons and commit serious crimes here in the U.S. Your remark is about as dumb as saying that all folks north of the Mexican border are fine folks. Besides they entered our country illegally, this takes away the fine folks label already.

[jj]

Plenty of people argue that illegals are needed in order to do jobs americans won't do. but increasingly there is automation to do the jobs americans don't want to do

see the following. a careful look at the automation that is available will lead you to see that there will be no catastrophe when all the illegals exit the usa

EMMELOORD, Netherlands (Reuters) - Motorists nostalgic for the time they could sit tight while attendants braved windswept garage forecourts to fill their tanks may yet see those heady days return -- compliments of a Dutch robot.

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[T]

"Another thing is that Texas never had a hospital system or a school system as good as california's so texans may not feel they are losing so much when their schools and hospitals go to heck"

Uh, Texas' school system is worse than CA? Just curious, but by what measure? Same with the hospitals...And no, Texans don't think they aren't losing anything.

[jr]

Look, texas voters have the chance to implement the same laws that are in place in Arizona.

The voters in Texas, as a state, have not implemented it.

In my opinion, all Texans deserve what they are getting (disaster)

The voters in Arizona had the gumption to do something and the voters in Texas are too lazy

[Newbie]

I don't think it is because Texans are too lazy to do what Arizona did in dealing with illegal immigration. I think the reason is that Hispanics make up a large majority of the Texas population and that Texas was once part of Mexico so they feel closer ties to Mexico and it's people. It will be their own demise when Texas goes down the tubes and the rest of the country gets back to normal.

[el_longhorn]

Yeah, Texas is a real disaster - best business climate in the US, low taxes, high employment, strong economic growth, no housing bubble, strong state tax revenues. Damn those immigrants - they have brought growth and traffic to my sleepy little town!

[jr]

I think there are two sides to this.

Texas is a lot more libertarian than California.

Welfare payments per family are much lower, school spending much lower, etc

the average undocumented family probably costs the government of texas MUCH less than an undocumented family costs the government fo California.

It is possible that from an economic standpoint, undocumented immigrants are a much better deal for texas than they are for california.

so it might be rational for the average person in texas to be much happier accepting tons of undocumenteds than the average person in california

[Dee]

It is clear, Texas´economy is thriving. Additionally, I have travelled the country throughout my career and I know that schools are excellent in Texas, educational and all sports programs, especially football. When we lived in Michigan, the economy was so poor, many public schools did not have sports programs until high school. Here in Texas, we have athletic programs starting in pre school. Both of my grandchildren (6 and 8) are active in football already.

The facts are Texas´ economy is thriving and it is a majority minority state.

The facts are, Oklahoma passed HB 1804 in 2007 and their political leaders are trying to rescind it due to the impact on tax revenue, business and their economy.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20080202_1_A1_hItsj23352

We should do as Dr. B suggests. An unbias study should be completed so we can track the impact when these restrictionist laws are imposed. Looking at the comments sections in the Tucson newspapers, many commenters say they did NOT have a vote in these laws, yet they are personally impacted (jobs, economy, racial profiling)

The following be included in this paper.

1. Topic: State to State Migration after Restrictionist Immigration laws passed and enforced (e.g. HB 1804 in Oklahoma, eff date Nov. 2007)
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:YwU9693E-vkJ:webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/2007-08bills/HB/HB1804_ENR.RTF+hb+1804&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us

2. Legal Status: Of those migrating, how many legal citizens, illegal immigrants.
3. Ethnicity: Of those migrating, what % by ethnicity
4. Receiving State: e.g. From Oklahoma to % to Texas, % other states
5. Impact to Economy, by state (sending and receiving): rate of state tax revenue (increase, decrease), Employment rates (increase, decrease), rate of Business Bankruptcy (increase, decrease), rate of employee wages (increase, decrease)
6. Crime Rates: by state (increase vs decrease, by ethnicity)
7. Case Studies: personal interviews with both legal citizens that migrated and illegal immigrants who migrated. Ask why they left. Include questions on Racial Profiling (experienced or perceived).

[jr]

Well, I am strongly in favor of the laws passed in Arizona and Oklahoma.

But i think it is fair to say that there are positives and negatives.

These laws do make us citizens who speak spanish feel uncomfortable. Someone that can only speak spanish is more likely to be questioned by employers and police. I deplore that. It is unfair to these good people who are citizens.

Most business owners suffer - i mean the cost of labor is going up in Arizona and Oklahoma, and that reduces profits.

Most us citizens of all races that are unskilled and uneducated benefit massively. Wages go up for those folks. The schools they attend and the hospitals they use become much less crowded

So the Oklahoma and Arizona laws are clear home runs for those of our fellow citizens that are unskilled and uneducated (relative to the average) I am strongly in favor of the Oklahoma and Arizona laws for this reason

But business owners get lower profits and thus the business leadership complains. The state government has many fewer crimes, so has fewer prisons to build, so the prison guards hate the laws and the prison guard union hates it. The schools have fewer students and the schools are able to hold teachers to higher standards, so the teachers union hates the law.

The vast non profit social service agencies hate it because there are fewer desperately poor pathological illiterate people in the state for them to serve. So fewer jobs for the liberal social worker types So the government employee unions complain and most people in the non profit sector complain.

I guess it is clear that the people who benefit from the new laws are the plain old joe six pack type people who work normal blue collar jobs. These folks love the new laws and benefit massively.

Almost every special interest group, or elite group ( i have named a few above) complains about the new laws.

Basically, in most states, the plain old joe six pack type people working blue collar jobs don't have a voice in public policy. Somehow they made their voices heard in Oklahoma and Arizona.

It remains to be seen whether their voices will be heard in other states.

Truthfully, even though mass illegal immigration is hurting these folks badly, these folks overwhelmingly voted in the democratic and republican primaries for candidates that favor a continued flood of unskilled immigrants. These folks who benefit from a cut off of the immigrants are unwilling to stand up for their interests when it counts, and thus perhaps when the elites victimize them they bear some blame for their own victimization

[Newbie]

I find the term "joe six pack" describing our blue collar American workers, offensive. Do you have some kind of negative point you are trying to make here? How do you know who voted for whom?

Let's make an analogy here. It costs money to go after an American felony criminal, take them to court, convict them and then incarcerate them for several years. But if we didn't do so our country would become a lawless country. So based on your rational, we shouldn't make laws to restrict illegal immigration and also the impact of it as the states are doing because it might cost someone money? What kind or morals are in play here?

[skh.pcola]

Try to contain your indignation, Newbie. "Joe Six-Pack" is the analog of "John Q. Public," and has been used as a comparable euphemism for decades. It isn't pejorative in any sense (at least to me...your sensitivity and mileage may vary).

[slim]

no offense is intended to anyone

the honest truth is that most americans without a college degree are badly hurt by the influx of illegal unskilled immigrants

however, when you look at the voting patterns of this group, then failed to come out for the candidates that were against illegal immigration

the people hurt by illegal immigration do not stand up for themselves