And The Flows Go On

People move to places where they can do better. And the shifting economic fortunes of countries within the European Union illustrate that fact dramatically:

Since 2004, when the European Union added eight Eastern European countries, hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans have moved west -- mostly to Ireland and the United Kingdom, among the first EU countries to open their borders to workers from the new members. Now, with the Western economies flirting with recession and Eastern Europe flourishing, the wave of immigrants is slowing sharply. Many of the recent arrivals -- half of them, by some estimates -- are heading home.

The shift shows how rapidly some Eastern European economies are catching up to their Western counterparts, as their growth, wages and currencies surge. And it illustrates how a new, nimbler breed of immigrant, aided by discount airfares and technology, can hopscotch across countries to capitalize on economic cycles.

That last sentence is actually pretty striking. This new breed of "footloose' immigrants is obviously going to have a different assimilation profile than the more permanent type of immigrant, a different type of economic impact, and it fundamentally changes the nature of the "contract" between the immigrant and the receiving country.

On a personal note: Blogging has been extremely light in the past few months. I'm in the midst of finishing up the 5th edition of my Labor Economics textbook (and working on several other research projects as well). Blogging is nice and fun, but it has a sizable opportunity cost at this point. Every hour spent blogging is an hour not spent at working on my research projects or finishing my manuscript.

Comments

[Fergus O'Rourke]

Your posts are worth waiting for, usually. Meanwhile, we have plenty of other stuff to digest e.g. Rodrik, not to mention our own life committments !

[Rohan Swee]

Thanks for posting when you can, Prof.

"...a new, nimbler breed of immigrant, aided by discount airfares and technology, can hopscotch across countries to capitalize on economic cycles."

I guess our only hope is that rising transportation costs might temporarily slow down the globalists' insane drive to reduce all workers to the status of shippable widgets.

[Emma]

"Blogging is nice and fun, but it has a sizable opportunity cost at this point. Every hour spent blogging is an hour not spent at working on my research projects or finishing my manuscript."

Think of it as a ministry, giving back, etc. Surely, if you don't tithe the full 10%, the good Lord will find that educating some of the masses for free compensates.

[Liquidmicro]

"Since 2004, when the European Union added eight Eastern European countries, hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans have moved west -- mostly to Ireland and the United Kingdom, among the first EU countries to open their borders to workers from the new members. Now, with the Western economies flirting with recession and Eastern Europe flourishing, the wave of immigrants is slowing sharply. Many of the recent arrivals -- half of them, by some estimates -- are heading home."

Does not this say what has been said all along about population growth. Too much at once and economies go into recession, while the countries losing the immigrants begin to flourish.

"The shift shows how rapidly some Eastern European economies are catching up to their Western counterparts, as their growth, wages and currencies surge."

This begins to answer a very good question I have raised several times in other blogs that nobody has even attempted to answer.

So do we lower our wages to match that of poorer countries or do we try to raise there wages to match ours? From the paragraph above, it looks to be both, an average of somewhere in the middle. However, those losing wages are now stuck with paying more for items, while those gaining wages are able to purchase even more. So when does it become regulated and why should those losing wages be made to pay more for their items?

[Jenny]

Something that needs to be discussed, somewhere is how it is impossible for American citizens to get legal representation to litigate against employers, and other entities who are violating our rights, our government, including our elected leaders in congress. Especially when it's found out that they are personally profitinng from their votes. Even John Kerry, the man has millions invested in Microsoft, and each time he votes to give Bill Gates more visas, his investment rises dramatically. He's gone from 3 million in '05, to more than 6 million as of the last time opensecrets.org updated his data.

[John]

Throw in dual citzenship and green cards and what you have is a flag of convenience.

[Tejvan Pettinger]

In the UK, alot of Polish immigrants are thinking of returning as the Polish Zloty appreciates relative to Pound and UK employment prospects fall. Plus Poland is best place to buy a house at moment

[steve]

there is a cultural element to immigration - the immigrants from eastern europe assimilate better in to the uk than the immigrants from the muslim nations.

the immigrants from eastern europe are not setting off bombs in w europe -

you should recognize dr borjas that life is not just about economics - there are other concerns.

[Dee]

Dr. B, welcome back! We missed you! Your insightful post reminded me of a quote by one of our Founding Fathers. This tells me the more we think things change, the more they actually are the same and we are, in fact, following the views of our predecessors:

“This involves the great question as to the right of expatriation, upon which so much has been said in this cause. Perhaps it is not necessary it should be explicitly decided on this occasion; but I shall freely express my sentiments on the subject. That a man ought not to be a slave; that he should not be confined against his will to a particular spot, because he happened to draw his first breath upon it; that he should not be compelled to continue in a society to which he is accidentally attached, when he can better his situation elsewhere, much less when he must starve in one country, and may live comfortably in another: are positions which I hold as strongly as any man, and they are such as most nations in the world appear clearly to recognize.”
Supreme Court Justice James Iredell, Talbot v. Janson, 1795

[stu]

Dee,

Dr Borjas has said many times that the exit of the 20 million illegals will push up wages for the unskilled american citizens, especially for african americans.

Dee, you have suggested that you want the 20 million illegals to stay in the usa, rather than leave.

so far you are putting the intersts of your ethnic group ahead of the interests of your fellow citizens of the USA.

Please take the time to read what Dr. borjas has written - it might change your mind about the 20 million

i still hold out hope that your patriotism towards the usa will lead you to change path and call for the 20 million to exit, in the interest of higher wages for americans without an education

[lincoln]

What i see in Dr. Borjas's web sites are some careful well reasoned arguments that

(1) the wages and working conditions and employment rates of african americans are today much lower because of illegal immigration than they would be if there were no illegal immigration

(2) other academics have proven this

(3) prominent african american leaders like the late Barbara Jordan that have taken the time to study this agree that illegal immigrants push down black wages and employment

It would seem that all of the above statements are pretty easy to prove or disprove through careful research on the internet. I have taken the time to do so and find that the evidence is pretty clear.

Again, it seems like a certain group of people on this board respond to careful and calm well reasoned logic with cries of racism.

That doesn't seem fair - there seem to be plenty of people whose true concern in life is helping young african american males get jobs (instead of being frozen out of the employment market) and these folks are shouted down.

It seems like the many of the people here like Dee would rather pick a fight with white racists so they can feel superior to white racists. They don't want to confront the fact that there is a sharp economic conflict between the illegals and the african americans.

Racists are scum. But actually doing something that helps african americans get jobs is useful too - not just saying racists are scum (as indeed they are)

the exit of the 20 million illegals results in lower unemployment for african americans. if you care about helping your fellow citizens who are african american then cause the 20 million to exit.

[lguerrrr]

This is very interesting to me as an immigrant and as a researcher. Someone mentioned having a 'flag of convenience'. Although I infer that it was supposed to be somewhat insulting, I like having a flag of convenience. I am willing and able to work and live in almost any country. I am not ashamed to say that I look for the best salaries, lowest taxes, and best way of life. Do countries need to compete for the best workers/citizens? Absolutely.
I think it's wonderful to see an increase not just in economic but geographic mobility.