Trends in Illegal Immigration

The Pew Hispanic Center has an interesting report on the illegal immigrant population in the United States. The Los Angeles Times emphasizes one particularly interesting tidbit:

After years of rapid growth, illegal immigration is slowing down in California, with the state's share of the nation's estimated 11.9 million undocumented migrants dropping to 22% from 42% in 1990, the study showed.

That's quite a drop in California's magnetic attraction for illegal immigrants. The Pew study uses data for March 2008--so whatever is going on has nothing to do with the current economic crisis. Moreover, I don't think California took any actions making it more unpleasant for illegal immigrants to work in that state in recent years (as neighboring Arizona did). So a very interesting question arises: why exactly has the proportion of illegal immigrants living in California dropped from 42% to 22%?

Maybe the very large number of low-skill immigrants in California reduced economic opportunities for this group so much that the more recent flows of illegal immigrants decided they could be better off elsewhere. That's a shocker: Maybe the laws of supply and demand work after all.

Comments

[Tim Dowd]

I would think that long before March 2008 illegal immigrants would have started feeling the effects of the current recession. NBER points to the recession beginning in December 2007, but illegal immigrants are a little bit like the canary in the coal mine, being the first employees to be let go. Although the analogy breaks down because it is difficult to monitor the job losses of illegal immigrants.

[Evinx]

Maybe it is bcs there was so much "opportunity" for employment in states other than CA. Demand increased practically everywhere as it became more + more acceptable for business to hire illegals - as no one was enforcing any laws against their hiring. They simply followed the money. This had nothing to do with CA becoming less hospitable towards illegals; rather, their finding a welcoming atmosphere elsewhere as well.

[MS]

CA is the gateway for illegal immigration as it provides a very familiar environment in terms of culture, hospitality and weather. Just as NY was in the 19th century for europeans. Then the arrivals moved and conquered the wild west (in this case, the east and midwest).

In many ways, a single state can only handle so many illegals in its population before there is intense competition amongst themselves and not enough legal workers left to support the tax base - as has clearly happened in southern CA.

[runescape accounts]

Just wanted to say HI. I found your blog a few days ago and have been reading it over the past few days.

[Anre1969]

MS is right that California is no longer the destination, but mainly a gateway state (like Arizona). However, I wouldn't completely dismiss the economic downturn. While the US recession is dated by the NBER as starting in 12/2007, California has been in economic trouble way before that.